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This phenomenon is not caused by climate change, but it has been proven that it has been exacerbated by global warming and for that reason meteorologists agree that the current Niño is even more intense and, if the appropriate measures are not taken, the victims and the material damage would exceed the 1997 figures.
At that time, the climatic phenomenon caused catastrophic floods in California (USA) and much of Latin America that left thousands of deaths, while on the other side of the Pacific it continued, it ravaged Indonesia, Australia and India, in addition, it affected crops of coffee in much of the world, which led to the rise in prices and epidemics were the order of the day.
"The climate impacts of El Niño 2015-2016 will be amplified by decadal variability and global warming" and "in the midst of conditions of economic, environmental, social and political vulnerability," said the World Meteorological Organization.
An example of this are the floods in much of the Paraguayan capital and in the Peruvian Amazon, and a strong one continued in the north of Colombia, where the thousands of affected have not only been forced to leave their homes, but have also denounced neglect by the authorities.
The worst part is in Central America, where the drought is one of the most severe in recent decades and already leaves 3.5 million people affected and, according to the authorities of El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua and Guatemala, on the brink of famine , since the forecasts indicate that the rains will arrive from the hand of the Girl in May 2016.
According to the consensus of global prediction models, El Niño reached “its maximum intensity” last November, which will last until January 2016 and “its gradual decline would occur during the first half of 2016,” explains the International Center for Research of the El Niño Phenomenon (CIIFEN), based in Ecuador.
Data from that center in its report this month indicate that it is expected that between the remainder of this year and the beginning of 2016, the greatest probabilities of rain will be registered in Mexico, on the coast of Ecuador, in the north and northwest of Peru. , in the central and eastern region of Paraguay, the southeast of Brazil, in Uruguay and in the north of Argentina.
In contrast, in Central America, much of Venezuela, northern Colombia, northeast and eastern Brazil, the eastern plains area in Bolivia and northern Chile will register less rainfall, which translates into drought.
For the US, the calculations of the Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, for its acronym in English) indicate that there is a probability greater than 90% that El Niño will last throughout the winter 2015-2016 of the northern hemisphere and around a 85% of it runs through Spring 2016.
In California (USA), a state hit hard by an intense drought that could last until the first half of next year, losses of 2.7 billion dollars are already estimated, much of it in the agricultural sector.
Likewise, more than a third of Puerto Rico's population, of 3.5 million inhabitants, has been affected by severe electricity and drinking water rationing plans since last May due to the severe drought that affects the island.
On the other hand, the UN warned of the consequences that this Child will have among the smallest and, according to the organization's data, “more than 500 million minors live in areas where the probability of flooding is extremely high and 160 million reside in places where droughts are extremely serious ”.
"The consequences could extend for generations unless the affected communities are supported," recently warned the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF), which estimated at 11 million children who could go through famines and diseases such as malaria, dengue, diarrhea, or cholera.
In conclusion, as the Secretary General of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), Michel Jarraud, recently pointed out, the trend is clear that the years are warmer due to El Niño and cold years, coinciding with the inverse phenomenon of La Niña, "They are also hotter."
For this reason, experts maintain that it is very possible that 2016 will be even warmer than 2015, precisely because the effects of El Niño will be observed in all its amplitude in the first months of next year.
Other oceans have phenomena similar to El Niño, but the impact on the Pacific is more dramatic, as it is the largest ocean on the planet.