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Saharan Africa has a 50% risk of going to war as a result of extreme variations in rainfall, a product of climate change, warned Alejandro Guevara, academic vice-rector of the Ibero-American University.
Droughts affect crops and food availability, this generates a fight for the most fertile territories to cultivate.
Guevara, an expert in economics related to the environment, in his research "Climate change, natural disasters and their macroeconomic effects" warned about the increase in natural disasters in recent years. Therefore, he called for measures to prevent human and economic losses derived from environmental catastrophes, such as floods or droughts. He highlighted that most of the empirical evidence indicates that natural disasters negatively affect a country's capacity for growth. "Natural disasters cause a greater decrease in the human development index in less developed municipalities", Indian.
This results in a "Social inequality“, Since natural disasters hit the most vulnerable groups the hardest. "The effects of the same disaster are relatively much greater" in those countries where the people are poorer.
Guevara remarks that the highest economic costs as a result of natural disasters occur in developed countries.
This is because in these there is a great deal of accumulated wealth and therefore the same event causes more damage in absolute terms.
As recommendations, Guevara suggested optimal urban planning, the strengthening of insurance institutions and public policies and the dissemination of timely information to increase the resilience of the human being when these types of catastrophes occur.
Dr. Carl Schleussner, from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, also gave his opinion on the global situation: “Climate-related natural disasters have a potential for disruption that seems to take place in a particularly tragic way in societies that are divided ethnic.
Disasters do not trigger conflict, but they can increase the risk of deep-rooted conflict in specific circumstances. As intuitive as this may sound, we can now show it scientifically sound, he argued.
Conflict risk projections on a global scale by 2050 indicate that the regions most vulnerable to the outbreak of armed conflict are Africa and Central Asia.
Recent analyzes of the social consequences of the droughts in Syria and Somalia show that these weather events could have contributed to outbreaks of armed conflict or sustained conflicts in both countries. Similarly, a prolonged drought could have contributed negatively to the current conflicts in Afghanistan.
Further destabilization in North Africa and the Levant could have widespread effects by triggering migration flows to neighboring nations and remote destinations, such as the European Union, the study adds.
The document emphasizes that the root cause of these conflicts is specific to each case, but warned that natural disasters have the potential to amplify existing social tensions and thus further destabilize several of the world's most conflictive regions.
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